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Cover -- Half-title -- Title page -- Copyright information -- Dedication -- Contents -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- Acknowledgments -- List of Abbreviations -- 1 Introduction -- Defining the Regime -- Which Nonproliferation Regime? -- Resolving Uncertainty within the Regime -- Existing Studies of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime -- A Shift in Perspective -- Methods and Scope -- Beyond the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime -- Plan for the Book -- 2 The Puzzle of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime -- The Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime: A Brief History -- NPT Review Conferences -- 1970-1980: India's Test and Control of Nuclear Supply -- 1980-1990: Israel, Iraq, and New Momentum -- 1990-2000: The Road to Extension -- 2000-2020: North Korea, Iran, and the Nuclear Ban Treaty -- The Regime's Surprising Success -- 3 Membership -- Theorizing Membership in the NPT -- Perceived Effectiveness and the Cost of Treaty Membership -- Bad-Faith Membership -- Perceived Effectiveness and the Decision to Join the NPT -- Universality -- Obligations of P-5 States -- Closing Loopholes -- The International Response to Proliferation -- Freedom of Action -- Overall Treaty Effectiveness -- Indicators of the NPT's Effectiveness -- Membership -- Monitoring and Verification -- Enforcement and Compliance -- Quantitative Analyses of NPT Membership -- Dependent Variable -- The Perceived Effectiveness of the NPT -- Control Variables -- Modeling Approach -- Findings -- Substantive Significance -- Perceived Effectiveness and Bad-Faith Member States -- Conclusion -- 4 Compliance -- The Track Record Mechanism of State Compliance -- Reciprocity and the Strategic Setting of the NPT -- Resolving Compliance Uncertainty -- Moderators of the Track Record Mechanism -- The Track Record Mechanism in the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime.

Japan and the Track Record of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime -- The Pattern of Compliance and Violation in the Regime -- Testing the Track Record Mechanism of Compliance -- Dependent Variable -- The Track Record of the Regime -- Control Variables -- Modeling Approach -- Findings -- Substantive Significance -- Other Indicators of Regime Effectiveness -- Nuclear Secrecy -- Addressing Alternative Explanations -- High-Risk Cases -- Proliferation Cascades -- The Behavior of Non-NPT States -- Disarmament -- Technology Diffusion -- Conclusion -- 5 Enforcement -- Selective Enforcement and Nonproliferation Policy Preferences -- Screening for State Policy Preferences -- Information and Costly Enforcement -- Good Nonproliferation Citizens -- The Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime Complex -- Sanctions and Nonproliferation Policy Preferences -- Dependent Variable -- Regime Membership and Nonproliferation Preferences -- Control Variables -- Modeling Approach -- Findings -- Predictive Validity -- Conclusion -- 6 Latency -- Does the Regime Encourage or Inhibit Nuclear Development? -- Regime Membership May Limit Nuclear Progress -- Regime Membership May Encourage Nuclear Progress -- Testing the Association between Regime Membership and Nuclear Capability -- Dependent Variable -- Regime Embeddedness -- Control Variables -- Modeling Approach -- Findings -- Substantive Significance -- Addressing Selection into the Nonproliferation Regime -- A Model of Regime Embeddedness -- Findings -- Conclusion -- 7 Conclusion -- Implications for Researchers -- Implications for the Policy Community -- Appendix: Nuclear Data -- Exploration versus Pursuit -- Nuclear Datasets -- Critiquing Quantitative Analysis via Nuclear Datasets -- Coding Contemporaneous Knowledge of Nuclear Weapons Programs -- Iran -- Iraq -- Libya -- North Korea -- Romania -- South Korea -- Syria -- Taiwan.

Yugoslavia -- References -- Index.

This book explains how and why the nuclear nonproliferation regime has been successful, even without the characteristics usually seen in effective institutions.