TY  - BOOK
AU  - Goldgeier,James
AU  - Shifrinson,Joshua R.Itzkowitz
TI  - Evaluating NATO Enlargement: From Cold War Victory to the Russia-Ukraine War
SN  - 9783031233647
PY  - 2023///
CY  - Cham
PB  - Springer International Publishing AG
KW  - International relations
KW  - Security, International
KW  - Military policy
KW  - Fernzugriff
KW  - Electronic books
N1  - E-Book-ProQuest / Fernzugriff nach Registrierung möglich; Intro -- Acknowledgements -- Contents -- List of Contributors -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- 1 Evaluating NATO Enlargement: Scholarly Debates, Policy Implications, and Roads not Taken -- NATO Enlargement: Review and Reprise -- Framing the Debates Over Enlargement's Legacy -- International Debates -- Domestic‑Level Considerations -- Organizational Impact -- The Role of Counterfactual Analysis and Inference -- Previewing the Volume -- Conclusion: Toward a Research Agenda -- References -- Part I Foreign Policy and Strategy Debates -- 2 Patterns of Continuity in NATO's Long History -- A Permanent Alliance? -- The Ismay Assumptions -- The Forever Tsars -- The German Problem -- The USA as a European Power -- Growing Membership, Unchanging Mission -- New Members -- Non‑members -- Who's in, Who's Out? -- Why not Expand NATO's Functions? -- Stabilizing Europe -- Dynamic Versus Static -- Plus ca Change, Plus C'est la Même Chose -- Challenging Inevitability -- A Higher Cost to Expansion, Imposed by Moscow -- An Increased European Defense Effort that Allowed the Americans to Go Home -- A US President Willing to Take Political and Geopolitical Risks -- A Different Germany -- Looking Forward -- References -- 3 NATO as a Political Alliance: Continuities and Legacies in the Enlargement Debates of the 1990s -- Adaptation and Preservation -- Going East -- A Liaison to the East -- The North Atlantic Cooperation Council -- The Partnership for Peace -- To Madrid -- Conclusion -- References -- 4 The NATO Enlargement Consensus and US Foreign Policy: Origins and Consequences -- The United States and NATO Enlargement: A Brief History -- Explaining the Trend -- Enlargement as a Byproduct of Unipolarity -- Expansion as Power Maximization -- Expansion as Leadership via Prestige and Credibility -- Enlargement as Socialization -- Enlargement as Domestic Politics; Integrating the Results -- Consequences of Enlargement -- Prospective Advantages of Enlargement -- Prospective Disadvantages -- Second Order Effects -- Conclusion -- References -- 5 Myths and Realities of Putinism and NATO Expansion -- References -- Part II Great Power Relations -- 6 NATO Enlargement and US Grand Strategy: A Net Assessment -- The Case for a Post‑Cold War NATO -- Unhindered NATO Expansion -- NATO on Russia's Border -- Russia's Reaction -- An Alternative Path? -- Hazards of Continued NATO Enlargement -- Avoiding Threat Inflation Regarding Russia -- Transatlantic Trends -- NATO and the War in Ukraine -- References -- 7 NATO Enlargement: Evaluating Its Consequences in Russia -- The Difficulty of Testing the Effects of NATO Enlargement -- Organization of the Argument -- Objective Military and Foreign Policy Effects of NATO Enlargement on Russia -- Confounding External Systems Effects on Russia's Relationship with the West -- Russian Perceptions About NATO: Nationalist Manipulation and Domestic Politics -- Russia's 2022 Invasion of Ukraine -- Conclusions -- References -- 8 The Tragedy of US-Russian Relations: NATO Centrality and the Revisionists' spiral -- Modeling the Spiral -- NATO Centrality vs. NATO Expansion -- Origin of Revisionism: Russia's Response: 1990-1993 -- Cooperation‑as‑Revisionist Strategy -- The Road Toward Defection -- The Revisionists' Spiral as a Greedy‑Security Dilemma -- Conclusion -- References -- 9 China Views NATO: Beijing's Concerns About Transatlantic Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific -- Post-Cold War Relations Between China and NATO -- NATO's 2022 Strategic Concept: China's Concerns About the Globalization of the US Alliance System -- Edging Away from the West: China's Global Security Initiative -- Conclusion -- References -- Part III European Security -- 10 Thank Goodness for NATO Enlargement; The Arguments for and Against NATO Enlargement -- Assessing NATO Enlargement -- Fulfilling the Need for a Useful Hedge -- NATO Enlargement Does Not Prevent Mutually Beneficial Cooperation -- The Defensibility of NATO's Northeastern Flank -- Concluding Thoughts -- References -- 11 Good for Democracy? Evidence from the 2004 NATO Expansion -- Introduction -- NATO's Commitment to Democracy: How Much Does It Matter? -- NATO and Democratic Development -- Evaluating the Counterfactual -- Measuring Democratic Institutions -- Caveats and Considerations -- Quantitative Analysis -- Regression Analysis Results -- Discussion and Conclusions -- References -- 12 Ukraine's Bid to Join NATO: Re-evaluating Enlargement in a New Strategic Context -- A Balancing Act -- The Bucharest Statement -- Euromaidan and the 2014 Invasion -- Drawing the Line -- Enhanced Assistance for Ukraine -- The Impact of NATO Assistance -- NATO Enlargement: Reframing the Debate -- Is NATO Enlargement to Blame for Russian Aggression? -- Looking Forward -- The Internal Dimension of Peace and Security -- What Does NATO Owe Its Partners? -- Conclusion -- References -- 13 Every Which Way But Loose: The United States, NATO Enlargement, European Strategic Autonomy and Fragmentation -- Consolidation (1989-1995): No Exit -- Instability -- Monopoly -- Casting a Wider Net -- European Reflex -- Supply and Demand -- Test Case -- Everything at Once (1996-2000) -- Closing Windows -- Monopoly II -- Dilution -- Fragmentation (2001-2016) -- Consolidation Complete -- Exploiting Divisions -- Burning Up the Bandwidth -- The Benefits of 2022 Hindsight -- References -- Part IV Organizational Politics and Debates -- 14 Assessing the Consequences of Enlargement for the NATO Military Alliance -- SHAPEing the New NATO -- The Long‑Term, NATO Enlargement, and Bi‑MNC Studies (1994-1999) -- Making Enlargement Work; Consequences of Enlargement -- Conclusion -- References -- 15 In Peace and War: The Military Implications of NATO Enlargement -- Setting the Stage for the Enlargement Decision -- Former Adversaries Press to Join NATO as Allies Debate Whether to Enlarge -- Thinking Through the Military Implications of Enlargement -- The NATO Enlargement Study -- The Military Implications of the First Round of Enlargement -- The Downward Slope -- The Transition: Military Costs Begin to Outweigh Political Gains -- War in Europe -- Enlargement's Military Legacy and Further NATO Enlargement Debates -- Conclusion -- References -- 16 NATO Enlargement and the Failure of the Cooperative Security Mindset -- NATO's Rebranding Efforts: The Alluring Promise of Cooperative Security -- The Baltic States and Poland: From Model Behavior to Moral Hazard? -- Unresolved Grievances -- Deterrence Above All Else -- Fears Become Reality -- Collective Security vs. Collective Defense: NATO's Partners -- Europeanization of Sweden's and Finland's  Security and Defense Policies -- Sweden and Finland and the Deteriorating  International Environment -- The War in Ukraine and Its Impact on the Scandinavian Neutrals -- What Will Finland and Sweden Bring to NATO? -- Conclusion -- References -- References -- Index
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